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Wednesday, July 16, 2014

ATC Post Event Analysis

Another great year - my team ended up at number 16 out of 34. I think that's pretty good when you consider that except for the first round all the other teams we played placed in the top ten if not top five. I definitely could have done a lot better... It's tough getting seized on twice in a row—especially versus a Tau gun line. Also four out of my six opponents placed in the top 25 out of 170 players too. Oh well enough with the excuses.

I consider this one of the most intense events in the US. You always see a lot of the top players there... It's like the Who's Who of competitive 40k.

First I'll summarize how the event works.

Match Ups
Each team is composed of five players and no two players on the same team can take the same codex or supplement for their CAD (combined arms detachment) or allied detachment. So for example only one player on a team can take Space Marines for their CAD or allied detachment.

At the beginning of each round the two captains roll off for the choice to put down the first army list. If you put down the first list the other team gets to pick who'll face off against it and your team chooses the table. The teams then alternate until everyone is paired.

Obviously the match ups are very strategic and dictate which team will score more points. A lot of people tend to think it's best to put out the first list. Therefore following this strategy you need one army that is very well rounded and is often referred to as the Beast. What I've found is typically the second and fourth players to choose an opponent tend to get the best match ups (again assuming their team put down the first army list) plus their first and third players can choose from most of the tables best suited for their armies. It can be random for the last two players since most of the armies have already been paired and typically the best tables have already been chosen. As the captain of my team I let my players pick their match ups first and usually was paired third or fifth.

Using teams A and B it works like this if your team puts down the first army list:

A1 vs B1 (choose table) /best table
A2 vs B2 (choose which army you want to face off) /best match up
A3 vs B3 (choose table) /third best table
A4 vs B4 (choose which army you want to face off) /second best match up
A5 vs B5 (choose table)

So if your team has a Beast you will often get at least three good match ups plus two good tables suited toward your team's armies—keeping in mind match ups tend to trump the choice of tables.

Mission Format
The mission is the same every round except for deployment and Night Fight which vary.

There are three primary goals:

Crusade - 4 objective markers, two of which must be placed outside of the deployment zones.

Emperor's Will

Purge the Alien - Kill points.

Each primary goal is worth 8 victory points if you win or 4 victory points if you draw.

There are also three secondary goals:

First Blood - Slay the Warlord - Line Breaker

Each secondary goal is worth 2 victory points and both players can score these so the maximum possible victory points one player can score is 30 points per round.

Results Based upon Armies
Now we take a look at the final results based upon armies to see what the meta looks like based upon the ATC.

01. Space Marines - 22
02. Necrons - 22
03. Eldar - 21
04. Grey Knights - 16
05. Daemons - 15
06. Tau - 15
07. Imperial Guard - 11
08. Imperial Knights - 11
09. Chaos Marines - 7
10. Blood Angels - 7
11. Orks - 6
12. Tyranids - 5
13. Dark Eldar - 5
14. Dark Angels - 4
15. Space Wolves - 1
16. Black Templars - 1
17. Sisters of Battle - 1

Note there is a fairly sharp drop off after the eighth codex and the last seven total only one over the numbers represented by the two most popular armies.

Here are the top 50 armies with their total scores (each out of a possible 180 points):

01. Dark Eldar (172)
02. Eldar (170)
03. Imperial Knights (160)
04. Grey Knights (158)
05. Eldar (158)
06. Imperial Knights (154)
07. Eldar (152)
08. Eldar (152)
09. Imperial Knights (150)
10. Necrons (150)

Top Ten
4x Eldar
3x Imperial Knights
1x Dark Eldar
1x Grey Knights
1x Necrons

Eldar dominate the top ten closely followed by Imperial Knights.

11. Necrons (148)
12. Space Marines (148)
13. Tyranids (148)
14. Necrons (146)
15. Tau (144)
16. Space Marines (142)
17. Dark Eldar (142)
18. Grey Knights (140)"
19. Imperial Knights (140)
20. Space Marines (140)
21. Orks (138)
22. Necrons (138)
23. Daemons (136)
24. Space Marines (134)
25. Orks (134)

Top 25
4x Eldar
4x Imperial Knights
4x Necrons
4x Space Marines
2x Dark Eldar
2x Grey Knights
2x Orcs
1x Daemons
1x Tau
1x Tyranids

Eldar, Necrons, Imperial Knights and Space Marines take the top spots.

26. Dark Eldar (134)
27. Space Marines (132)
28. Grey Knights (132)
29. Space Marines (132)
30. Tau (132)
31. Daemons (130)
32. Tau (130)
33. Blood Angels (128)
34. Imperial Knights (126)
35. Imperial Knights (126)
36. Space Marines (124)
37. Eldar (124)
38. Necrons (124)
39. Imperial Knights (124)
40. Grey Knights (122)
41. Necrons (122)@
42. Eldar (122)
43. Eldar (122)
44. Necrons (120)
45. Daemons (118)
46. Eldar (118)
47. Dark Angels (118)
48. Tau (118)
49. Grey Knights (116)
50. Necrons (116)

Top 50
8x Eldar
8x Necrons
7x Imperial Knights
7x Space Marines
5x Grey Knights
4x Daemons
4x Tau
3x Dark Eldar
2x Orcs
1x Dark Angels
1x Tyranids

Here are the weighted results for the top 50 by Jason C on BoLS. The top 50 are weighted by the number of each army per codex (CAD) to determine the winning rates (%).

Amount in the Top 50# per Army PlayedRate
Imperial Knights: 7—11—64%
Dark Eldar: 3—5—60%
Eldar: 8—21—38%
Necrons: 8—23—35%
Orcs: 2—6—33%
Space Marines: 7—22—31%
Grey Knights: 5—16—31%
Daemons: 4—15—26%
Tau: 4—15—26%
Dark Angels: 1—4—25%
Tyranids: 1—5—20%

Eldar, Necrons, Imperial Knights and Space Marines take the top spots. A big kudos to the Dark Angels and Tyranid players - way to represent !

Of course with so many Eldar, Necron, Imperial Knights and Space Marine armies the odds were in their favor and they probably got to choose great match ups as well. Both Daemons and Tau have fallen in rank.

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